First, more on sovereign debt issues this morning: Part 2B: More on Historic Sovereign Default Research
This will be a busy week. The key economic report this week will be June retail sales to be released on Wednesday.
On Monday, the June Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index (based on diesel fuel consumption) will be released. Also on Monday at 10 AM ET, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will open the Fed’s small business forum: Addressing the Financing Needs of Small Businesses.
On Tuesday, the National Association of Independent Business (NFIB) will release the small business optimism survey for June at 7:30 AM. The May Trade Balance report will be released at 8:30 AM by the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a slight decrease in the U.S. trade deficit to $39 billion (from $40.3 billion). Also on Tuesday the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for May will be released at 10 AM by the BLS. This report has been showing very little turnover in the labor market.
On Wednesday, the June Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report will be released by the Census Bureau at 8:30 AM. The consensus is for a 0.2% decline in retail sales (flat ex-autos). Also on Wednesday, the MBA will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This has been very weak after the expiration of the tax credit, although refinance activity has picked up significantly as mortgage rates have fallen.
Also on Wednesday, the May Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales report from the Census Bureau will be released at 10 AM. This has been suggesting that the inventory adjustment is mostly over. At 2 PM the Fed will release the minutes of the June 23rd FOMC meeting.
On Thursday, the initial weekly unemployment claims will be released. Consensus is for a decline to 445K from 454K last week. The Producer Price index will be released at 8:30 AM. Consensus is for a slight increase in the PPI. The July Empire State manufacturing survey will also be released at 8:30 AM. The consensus is for a slight decrease from the June reading.
Also on Thursday the Federal Reserve will release the June Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report at 9:15 AM. Expectations are for production to decrease slightly and capacity utilization to fall to 74.0% from 74.7% in May. If so, this will be the first decline since June 2009. The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey for July will be released at 10 AM, and the consensus is for a slight increase.
On Friday, the June Consumer Price Index will be released at 8:30 AM. Expectations are for a slight decrease of 0.1% in the CPI. At 9:55 AM the July Reuters / University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index will be released. The consensus is for a slight decrease in the index.
Also this week, the June rail traffic report from the Association of American Railroads (AAR) and June LA port traffic will probably be released and the FDIC will probably be busy ...
Three posts on Sovereign debt:
Part 1: How Large is the Outstanding Value of Sovereign Bonds?
Part 2. How Often Have Sovereign Countries Defaulted in the Past?
Part 2B: More on Historic Sovereign Default Research
And a summary of last week:
 Image: Calculated Risk |
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
The June ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 53.8%, down from 55.4% in May - and below expectations of 55. The employment index showed contraction in June at 49.7%.
This graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing index (started in January 2008) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment diffusion index.
The employment index is showing contraction again after one month of expansion.
Image: Calculated Risk
This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.
The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased this week by 1,250 to 466,000.
The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average.
Initial weekly claims have been at about the same level since December 2009.
Image: Calculated Risk
The MBA reports: The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2.0 percent from one week earlier.
"The Purchase Index has decreased eight of the last nine weeks."
This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.
There has been a mini-refi boom because of the low mortgage rates, but the purchase index has fallen sharply to the levels of 1996.
Best wishes to all.
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