Wednesday, July 28, 2010

SocGen's Albert Edwards

japan

FT Alphaville has the latest from SocGen uber-bear Albert Edwards.

Here's a snip:

I have for a very long time likened events now unfolding with what we saw in Japan a decade ago. Of course there are some major differences, but one can still draw clear parallels to see how extreme equity overvaluations unwind in a post-credit bubble world.

I have long maintained that even within a structural bear market, there are huge returns to be made in equities from participating in short-lived cyclical rallies like the one we have just seen. The Nikkei regularly used to enjoy 40-50% rallies as policy stimulus drove pronounced cyclical upturns in both GDP and profits. You had to remember however that you were still in a structural bear market and you had to get out when the cycle began to top out. A downturn in the leading indicators proved to be a very useful sell signal for equity investors.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/socgens-albert-edwards-by-the-way-the-us-is-still-japan-all-over-again-2010-7#ixzz0uvwypgyb

No comments:

Post a Comment

 
Design by Free WordPress Themes | Bloggerized by Lasantha - Premium Blogger Themes | Macys Printable Coupons